Janet Yellen doesn’t speak until tomorrow, but the FOMC Meeting starts today. Rates have risen so much since the last meeting, it is nearly guaranteed that they will raise rates this time around. However, if you’re expecting rates to spike on the news, I would argue that they will likely fall back down to around 2.19% on the 10 Yr UST in the near term due to the huge bond market decline going into the event. That’s the true irony of the markets, they often do exactly the opposite of what the popular consensus expects. Buy the rumor, sell the news!
Regardless of the Fed’s Rate Decision, Be Prepared! While many market pundits are predicting the biggest stock market rally in all of history, and the consensus is the same…it is a good idea to be a little more pragmatic. The biggest bubble in all of modern monetary history has been blown over the past decade, so with each tick higher, the stock market becomes MORE risky, not less.